Johan Rockström has a new article in Context about the COP28 negotiations. You can read an excerpt below and the full article here.
Becoming stewards of all the planetary boundaries, and thereby restoring Earth’s resilience, is our window of opportunity for a safe landing for humanity on a manageable planet. In fact, the emerging best possible future for humanity is to cope with a period of (very likely) inevitable overshoot before returning to a world within a safe 1.5°C by 2100.
What is it that will bring us back from overshoot? Well, it is quite straightforward.
We need to decarbonise the world economy by 2050, cutting emissions by half each decade starting with 2030. We need to return to a safe operating space on terrestrial and ocean planetary boundaries, while hoping that no tipping points are permanently crossed. And we need to start scaling carbon dioxide removal technologies, as nature cannot restore energy balance on Earth alone.
Ultimately, it is very likely that the ocean will determine whether or not we can cool the planet after overshoot. That in turn hinges on the biological, physical and chemical health of our marine systems on Earth.
We have a window of opportunity for a safe landing, but it is closing quickly.
